The dubious theory of nuclear explosion
Executive summary
Nuclear weapons are a fantasy. A credible witness to the aftermath of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki found nothing extraordinary in the patterns of destruction. Furthermore, all “burst” nuclear chain reactions observed in the laboratory self-extinguish after producing a modest amount of radiation and heat. Thus, the case for the existence of nuclear weapons rests on a theory of nuclear explosion. That theory is half-baked and lacks any supporting evidence.
Introduction
The energy content of fissile material is extraordinary. The yearly electrical energy consumption of a large city can be provided by the fission of one-hundred pounds of uranium. If released in an instant, that same energy would exceed the destructive force of a conventional weapons by more than 1000 times.
However, that is a big if. There is a massive technological gap between energy production and the instantaneous release of energy in an explosion. The most obvious technical challenge is overcoming the fact that all such burst nuclear reactions self-extinguish in the laboratory.1
According to the US government and all its outlets in the media, nuclear explosion is a real phenomena. On August 6, 1945, the New York Times published the news: “First Atomic Bomb Dropped on Japan; Missile is Equal to 20,000 Tons of TNT”2 and the matter was settled.3
On the other hand, the theory of nuclear explosion has never been scientifically demonstrated. The theory is presented in the Los Alamos Primer4 and is the subtext for a number of other publications.5 However, is no substantive supporting evidence for the theory. In addition to the fact that the largest burst nuclear reaction reported in the scientific literature released the equivalent energy content of a handful of cookies, there is no evidence to support the proposed mechanistic model of nuclear explosion.
The nuclear explosion hypothesis is examined more closely below along with the conspicuous absence of supporting evidence.
The theory of nuclear explosion
The theory of nuclear explosion postulates that an nuclear chain reaction can occur in a fissile material with an almost unbounded, exponentially increasing reaction rate. Ultimately, the ensuing explosion of the fissile mass extinguishes the nuclear chain reaction.
Dubious assumptions of the theory of nuclear explosion
The theory of nuclear explosion is based several assumptions. There is no experimental evidence that is supportive of these assumptions.
Self-quenching in unmoderated nuclear chain reactions is due to thermal expansion of the fissile material.6 Experimental models of nuclear weapons demonstrate that nuclear chain reactions in unmoderated, highly enriched uranium are short-lived - typically lasting on the order of 1 millisecond or less. The reason for the extinguishing or quenching of the nuclear reaction is hypothesized to be due to the decrease in density of the fissile material from thermal expansion.
There is no experimental evidence that is supportive of this assumption. In fact, there has only been a crude study of the velocity of the surface of the fissile material as it is undergoing a burst nuclear chain reaction.7 Other effects such as the negative fuel temperature coefficient - the inherent decrease in fuel reactivity at higher temperatures - has never been considered.8
Delayed emission of neutrons in nuclear fission is rare. Following the collision between a free neutron and a nuclear of a fissile isotope, fission typically occurs on a time scale less than one picosecond. Slower pathways to the emission of neutrons exist through intermediate nuclear states or “precursors”. The reaction rate is thus limited only by the time for neutrons traveling in the vicinity of the speed of light to travel the “mean free path” - a distance of less than a meter.
Studies imply that the probability of the production of a neutron through a precursor is less than 1% and that the decay half-lives are in the range of 0.1 second or greater.9 However, there is strong evidence that precursors with shorter half-lives are produced in the fission of uranium-235 induced with a pulsed neutron generator.10 Similar evidence is found for a burst nuclear reactor.11
In the only calculation of the yield of a nuclear weapon available to the public, the released energy is as much as 10,000 tons of TNT.12 The document containing the calculation was purportedly written in 1943. The core assumption of the calculation is that - as the fissile mass explodes - the nuclear chain reaction occurs at a constant rate as it goes from a critical state to a sub-critical state. Furthermore, that change in state occurs in a time of 10 nanoseconds. There is zero evidence presented to support that assumption nor has any evidence emerged in the intervening decades.
Conclusion
The theory of nuclear explosion is not an obvious fraud. However, given the absence of evidence supporting its incredible assumptions and the existence of contradictory evidence - it is certainly a fraud.
Although one other report in the New York Times stated that the bombs used in the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki “could kill no more people than a regular ten-ton bomb if dropped on United States cities of steel and concrete.”
The Los Alamos Primer was written '‘as an ‘indoctrination course” according to the preface to the document. The publication concluded that the upper limit on the energy released in a nuclear weapon was 1% of the total available fission energy.
Publications hypothesizing or implying nuclear weapon feasibility are:
Coupled hydro-neutronic calculations for fast burst reactors accidents describes research with the purpose of “demonstrating the analysis capability, using modern supercomputers to cost effectively simulate several design basis accidents”. The study showed the feasibility of the production of 10^20 fissions in a burst nuclear reaction.
Godiva IV presented “[p]reliminary results obtained with a new fast burst assembly.” The power density in the nuclear reactor reached as high as 50 Mw/cm3. Nuclear reactions produced temperature increases as high as 525° C.
The behavior of Godiva through prompt critical describes a study “… undertaken because knowledge of the behavior of supercritical systems is important in evaluation of reactor hazards and also the hazards of less standard operations involving possibly critical quantities of active material.” The study found that “bursts” of up to 2 x 10^16 fissions and a duration of less than 100 microseconds.
Preliminary results of GODIVA-IV prompt burst modeling states: “The goal of this work is a better understanding of the basic physics of GODIVA-IV prompt bursts In particular, a better understanding of inertial effects and dynamic reactivity feedback caused by thermal expansion.” The study found power production of a fast burst reactor to be as high as 8000 megawatts.
The model described in PAD: a one-dimensional, coupled neutronic-thermodynamic-hydrodynamic computer code that is used in Coupled hydro-neutronic calculations for fast burst reactors accidents incorporates two mechanisms for “temperature feedback”; thermal expansion and the “Doppler effect”. .
The Los Alamos Primer estimates a nuclear explosion consumes as 1% of the available nuclear fission energy in a fissile mass. The maximum fissile mass is estimated to be twice the critical mass of 60 kg. The available nuclear fission energy is estimated to be 7 x10^13 Joules/kilogram.